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below) that of the tuning fork, the tuning fork still resonates, but it is slightly out of synch with the speaker (phase shif occurs) and the resonance is weaker As driving frequencies go further away from the resonant frequency of the tuning fork, less and less signal is picked up and responded to by the fork If a large number of tuning forks (resonators or filters) are each tuned to a slightly different frequency, then there is the potential to pick up a multitude of frequencies or signals, or, in the case of the markets, cycles A particular filter will resonate very strongly to tire cycle it is tuned to, while the other filters will not respond because they are not tuned to the frequency of that cycle.

The discount rate is needed to convert future pro ts into net present value of pro t so that these pro ts can be added together to get the cumulative pro t The lifetime value is determined by dividing the cumulative NPV of pro t by the original 200,000 customers to determine the value of a newly acquired customer In this case, the newly acquired customers are worth $18 in the third year This is the value to a company selling CDs that has already acquired these customers So to the dot com the names are worth $18 to their owner What would they be worth to a potential buyer Let us assume that the potential buyer is selling a product of similar value, so that the buyer s customer lifetime value once it has acquired the customers would be identical $18.

Cycles in the market may be construed in the same manner as described above-as if they were audio tones that vary over time, sometimes stronger, sometimes weaker Detecting market cycles may be attempted using a bank of filters that overlap, but that are separate enough to enable one to be found that strongly resonates with the cyclic activity dominant in the market at any given time Some of the filters will resonate with the current cyclic movement of the market, while others will not because they are not tuned to the frequency/periodicity of current market activity When a filter passes a signal that is approximately the same frequency as the one to which it is tuned, the filter will behave like the tuning fork, ie, have zero lag (no phase shift); its output will be in synchrony with the cycle in the market.

What is the value of these names to a new company that wants to sell products to these customers The value of a name has to be related to the cost of acquiring the customer by using various media (see Table 5-3) An outside buyer renting the name from the original company has to consider the costs of acquiring these customers on its own There are two methods the buyer could use: direct mail or email Let s consider both possibilities; the costs are given in Table 5-4 Table 5-3 Sales by Medium.

In addition, the filter output will be fairly close to a perfect sine wave and, therefore, easy to use in making trading decisions The filter bank used in our earlier study contained Butterworth band-pass filters, the code of which was rather complex, but was fully disclosed in the Easy Language of TradeStation..

Budget TV Radio Print Direct mail $400,000 $400,000 $400,000 $400,000 Reached 74,074,074 71,428,571 25,000,000 1,086,957 CPM $5.40 $5.60 $16.00 $368.00 Sales rate 0.04% 0.03% 0.07% 1.80% Sales 29,630 21,429 17,500 19,565 Cost per sale $13.50 $18.67 $22.86 $20.44

Before applying the scientific approach to the study of the markets, a number of things must be considered First, a universe of reliable market data on which to perform back-testing and statistical analyses must be available Since this book is focused on commodities trading, the market data used as the basis for our universe on an end-of-day time frame will be a subset of the diverse set of markets supplied by Pinnacle Data Corporation: these include the agriculturals, metals, energy resources, bonds, currencies, and market indices Intraday time-frame trading is not addressed in this book, although it is one of our primary areas of interest that may be pursued in a subsequent volume In addition to standard pricing data, explorations into the effects of various exogenous factors on the markets sometimes require unusual data.

Direct mail Names Cost of message Sending cost Response rate Responses Customer lifetime value Value of customers acquired Value after sending cost Prospect lifetime value Offering price 200,000 $0.37 $74,000 1.8% 3,600 $18.05 $64,977 ($9,023) ($0.05) 0 Email 200,000 $0.04 $8,000 1.0% 2,000 $18.05 $36,099 $28,099 $0.14 $0.07

For example, data on sunspot activity (solar radiation may influence a number of markets, especially agricultural ones) was obtained from the Royal Observatory of Belgium Not only is a universe of data needed, but it is necessary to simulate one or more trading accounts to perform back-testing Such a task requires the use of a trading simulator, a software package that allows simulated trading accounts to be created and manipulated on a computer The C+ + Trading Simulator from Scientific Consultant Services is the one used most extensively in this book because it was designed to handle portfolio simulations and is familiar to the authors Other programs, like Omega Research s TradeStation or SystemWriter Plus, also offer basic trading simulation and system testing, as well as assorted charting capabilities To satisfy the broadest range of readership, we occasionally employ these products, and even Microsoft s Excel spreadsheet, in our analyses.