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he names and addresses of ultimate consumers have always been valuable in direct marketing, if you know how to use them. But not all names are valuable. In the last 20 years, we have discovered that the names and addresses of purchasers of packaged goods sold in retail stores have almost no value. This is because you can t pro tably use direct mail to get people to buy packaged goods in retail stores. What could I do with a clean, household database of all the families in the United States that use Ivory Soap I could lose a lot of money. Database marketing is incremental. You are already selling Ivory Soap in retail stores. Your assumption is that, by sending direct-mail messages, you might sell a little bit more Ivory or a little bit more of another P&G product, perhaps 10 percent more. When you look at the cost of direct mail, you will soon learn that you are dead wrong. Ivory Soap is selling in some supermarkets at $1.29 for four bars. The pro t on those four bars is obviously tiny. A 10 percent increase would be even tinier. A good response to direct mail is 2 percent. There is no way that direct mail could possibly increase sales suf ciently to pay for itself when promoting most packaged goods. This is true not only for Ivory Soap but for almost everything sold in a supermarket, of ce supplies store, hardware store, or department store. Manufacturer after manufacturer has tried promotions with rebates by direct mail. They have collected thousands of consumer names and addresses in this way. None of them has gured out a way to make money from those names.

the t-test indicated a greater than 80% probability that the effect was real and would hold up. Both long and short trades were profitable. In-sample there were 37 trades (40% winners). Out-of-sample, longs and shorts both continued to be profitable; it was surprising that the shorts were profitable because the market was in a steep up-trend during most of that period. Out-of-sample, the return was 39.5% annualized, with an 80% probability of being real; there were 11 trades (45% winners), and the average trade returned $5,640. These are excellent results. The observation that sharp down-turns can occur after solar flares has been supported. With the stop order, Minnesota Wheat, Soybeans, and Cotton were also profitable in both samples. Minnesota Wheat pulled 13.5% annually in-sample, again with a better than 80% chance of the results being real, and 30.5% out-ofsample, with almost an 85% probability of the effect not being due to chance. Interestingly, Light Crude and Heating Oil were highly profitable in-sample, but lost moderately out-of-sample. There were a few profits in other markets, but no consistency between in- and out-of-sample performance with the stop.

That does not mean that consumer names are worthless for direct mail Catalogs obviously work extremely well Supermarkets pro tably send circulars that get customers to come back, or to shop on Tuesday night Names of parents of new babies are very valuable indeed What does not work well is the two-step direct-mail process for regular packaged goods: Send consumers a direct-mail letter inviting them to go to a retail store to buy the product If you use TV, radio, or print to do this, it works like gangbusters Why are the names of packaged goods purchasers worthless There are several reasons: The margins on these products are low Certi cate redemption is very slow it takes up to 6 months to nd out what is happening To make a pro t, you need repeat sales (low margin).

Like seasonality and lunar phase, solar activity appears to have a real influence on some markets, especially the S&P 500 and Minnesota Wheat. As with lunar cycles, this influence is not sufficiently strong or reliable to be a primary element in a portfolio trading system; however, as a component in a system incorporating other factors, or as a system used to trade specific markets, solar activity is worth attention. We personally do not believe solar influences directly determine the market. We do suspect that they act as triggers for events that are predisposed to occur, or as synchronizers of already-present market rhythms with similar periodicities. For example, if a market is highly over-valued and unstable, as was the S&P 500 in October 1987, a large solar flare might be sufficient to trigger an already-imminent crash.

Cabbage contains several sulfur compounds, indoles, and D-glucarate, which we now know are important to countering the effects of toxins. D-glucarate, in particular, rids the body of both tumor-initiating and tumor-promoting chemicals from the environment as well as potentially carcinogenic and/or cancer-promoting steroidal hormones.

You can t redeem a certi cate for every sale, or you would go broke So you never nd out about the subsequent sales There is no way to gure out if you are succeeding When people buy packaged goods at a retail store, their purchase may be captured by the store when the product is scanned If the store has a proprietary card, it may know that Helena Hughes bought a tube of Crest toothpaste on August 17 But the store won t tell Crest about it because of privacy considerations The small amount that Crest might pay for the information would not compensate for the bad public relations if Helena found out that her name was being used and complained about it publicly Retail stores simply will not sell this information They have been burned, and they know better.