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period of time When you ask the question this way, it is clear that usedcar owners have a lifetime value for Asian. We calculated the number of Asian cars that typical Asian car owners were buying each year. By knowing the pro t to Asian from the cars they were buying, it was possible to calculate the lifetime value to Asian of owners of used Asian cars, which is shown in Table 4-12. This shows that the owner of a used Asian car has a lifetime value to Asian of $8832 over 9 years. What can you do with this information You can use it to calculate the value to Asian of programs designed to increase purchases of used Asian vehicles by members of the general public. A program that was previously considered to be something that would help the Asian dealers is actually pro table for the manufacturer and probably deserves more effort than has previously been expended on it.

Doing this with the earlier approach would require that trades be entered n-days after the full or new moon, regardless of the market being traded; since lunar rhythms are distinct for each market (as demonstrated in our previous study), this approach was inappropriate The earlier model was, therefore, redesigned to be self-adaptive, ie, as it proceeds through lunar cycles, the appropriate timing for trading is decided by analysis of previous lunar cycles Another possible reason for the conflicting results may be the interaction between the exits and entries, The lunar model, and perhaps the seasonal model, has the property of pinpointing tradeable tops and bottoms, but only a percentage of the time Such systems work best with very tight stops that quickly cut losses when predictions go wrong, but that allow profits to accumulate when correct.

Lifetime value has been adopted by companies of every type throughout the developed world as a means of valuing their customers and directing their marketing programs. It is not that dif cult to compute if you have a

In general, the lunar models performed poorly, but there were individual markets with consistent, positive performance-encouraging, given the model was not optimized to them Results suggest that some great systems are hiding here if entries were tailored to them, eg, in our earlier study, the lunar model traded Silver well; in the current study, Silver was not strongly responsive Although the lunar models lost money on the portfolio, they lost very much less on a per-trade basis than did, for instance, most moving average and oscillator entry models..

database that contains transaction history, and if you can determine the revenue and costs involved in those transactions The real value of lifetime value is not in the numbers, but in the use that is made of the numbers Without imaginative strategies, the LTV numbers are useless Throughout this book, we will be using lifetime value tables to evaluate the effectiveness of various relationship-building strategies Most lifetime value tables cover only 3 or 4 years It is only in the automobile and similar industries (farm vehicles, trucks, capital equipment), where there is a lease or loan arrangement that typically lasts 3 or 4 years, that we have 9-year tables like those shown in this chapter Once lifetime value has been calculated, it can be put into every customer s database record The numbers will be different for each individual Here is how they are calculated.

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An earlier study (Katz and McCormick, September 1997) examined the effects of sunspots on the S&P 500 and Wheat. In-sample, a simple sunspot model pulled $64,000 from the S&P 500 between 1984 and 1992. There were 67 trades, 31% profitable. The average winning trade was $5,304.76, much larger than the average loser (-$1,030.43). The average trade was $955.22 with a return of 561% (not annualized). The long side was profitable, but the short side was substantially more so, highlighting the tendency of unusual solar activity to coincide with market crashes. The better performance of short trades is especially significant, since this market

Owners of 2002 B Model cars will have one value Owners of 2003 B Model cars will have another value This reasoning applies to the owners of every Asian model in every year, and to every used Asian model It applies to Asian lease and loan holders People who own two or more cars have the values of these cars added together The nal result is a unique LTV number for every customer based on everything that customer owns None of this takes into account the demographics of the customers Is the LTV of a 50-year-old customer different from the LTV of a 30year-old customer How would you discover that The answer lies in the different repurchase rates for different age groups Instead of looking at only the LTV by model, we can look at it both by model and by age group.