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Revenue Repurchase rate Re nance rate Retention rate Customers Amount nanced by lease Total amount nanced Income before taxes Total income before taxes Costs Acquisition cost Marketing costs ($12) Total marketing & sales Pro t Discount rate NPV of pro t Cumulative NPV of pro t Lifetime value Years 1 3 51.20% 62.00% 31.74% 100,000 $30,000 $3,000,000,000 $1,452.22 $145,222,000 Years 4 6 54.20% 64.00% 34.69% 31,744 $32,000 $1,015,808,000 $1,582.92 $50,248,206 Years 7 9 57.20% 66.00% 37.75% 11,011 $34,000 $374,386,196 $1,725.38 $18,998,807

S - 3

6,000,000 1,200,000 7,200,000

ments of 1 For entry at the open, the best performance (in terms of in-sample risk-to-reward ratio) was achieved with a moving average length of 15 and a displacement of 8: entry on a limit was best with a length of 15 and a displacement of 6; entry on a stop required a length of 15 and a displacement of 12 No tests showed profits in either sample In-sample, best performance (least average loss per trade) was with entry on limit; entry on stop produced poorer results; entry at open was the worst With the limit order, 43% of the 1,759 trades were profitable Out-of-sample, the limit order produced the smallest average loss per trade and the stop yielded the largest loss Overall, the system did not do well on the entire portfolio The relative performance of shorts and longs was inconsistent across orders and samples.

1,904,640 380,928 2,285,568

In-sample, longs lost substantially more than shorts, the opposite of what was frequently seen in tests of other models Equity steadily declined from the beginning to the end of the data series for entry at open For entry on limit, equity was choppy but up, peaking in September 1989 It then declined until July 1992, rose slightly until February 1994, and declined steadily until July 1998, when it suddenly began increasing With a stop, equity showed a choppy decline from one end of the data series to the other In-sample, the number of markets with positive returns using a limit, a market-at-open, and a stop were 15, 8, and 7, respectively Out-of-sample, the limit produced the best results (17) followed by the market-at-open (16), and the stop (14).

Chondroitin sulfate, 116, 117 Chromated copper arsenic (CCA), 33 Chromium, 87 Chromium picolinate, 120 Cilantro, 167 CLA (conjugated linolenic acid), 110, 111 Clothes storage, 31 Coenzyme Q10, 103, 104 5 Coffee, 60, 142 Colon cancer, 97, 99, 100 Colorectal cancer, 98 Compositaceae, 42 Conjugated linolenic acid (CLA), 67, 121 Conney, Dr., 97, 101, 102 Consumer Health Organization of Canada, 213 Convolvulaceae, 42 Cooking water, 41 Copper, 84 Coriander, 167 Cox-2, 50, 101 Cranberry, 118 Cruciferae, 42, 44, 99, 171 Cucurbitace, 43 Curcumins, 59, 94, 101 2, 117, 130 Cyanocobalamin. See B vitamins Cytochrome P-450, 9 10

660,682 132,136 792,818

More market-order combinations produced profits out-of-sample than in-sample; it seems that many markets are becoming more affected by lunar rhythms in recent years In-sample, only the Deutschemark and Light Crude were profitable across all three entry orders Out-of-sample, the Deutschemark was highly profitable with limit and stop orders; Light Crude slightly lost with the stop T-Bonds strongly profitable in both samples with the limit Pork Bellies was profitable in both samples with entry at open and on limit Considering only the limit order, profit in both samples was observed for the Deutschemark, Swiss Franc, Japanese Yen, Platinum, Palladium, Sugar, and Cotton Tests of the Basic Momentum Model A centered moving average smoothed the unintegrated lunar price change series No lag was induced because the centered average examines as many future (relative to the current bar), as it does past, data points.

This smoothing is legitimate because, in the calculations, the lunar estimate at the current bar involves data at least two lunar cycles (about two months) away For the smoothed lunar price changes, a series of average absolute deviations was computed and a loo-bar simple moving average was taken to produce the desired result A buy was issued when lunar momentum, at the current bar plus some displacement (d&p), was greater than some multiple (thresh) of the average absolute deviation of the lunar momentum A sell was issued when lunar momentum, at the same displaced bar,.

$138,022,000 1 $138,022,000 $138,022,000 $1,380.22

was less than minus the same multiple of the average absolute deviation Entries were executed at the open (Test 4), on a limit (Test S), or on a stop (Test 6) Optimization was for the length of the moving averages (stepped from 5 to 15 in increments of 5), the displacement (1 to 10 in steps of l), and the threshold (15 to 25 in steps of 05) Best results were achieved with the length, displacement, and threshold parameters set to 10, 10, 2 for the market-at-open and 15, 9, 15 for the limit and stop Overall, results were worse than for the crossover model Heavy losses occurred in both samples across all order types The same poor performance was observed when seasonal effects were analyzed with the momentum model Longs again performed better than shorts.

$ 47,962,638 1.33 $ 36,062,134 $174,084,134 $1,740.84