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With entry at open, portfolio equity declined smoothly and severely, with the rate of loss gradually decreasing over time With a limit order, equity steadily decreased With a stop, equity dropped sharply from the beginning of the sample until August 1988, then declined gradually In-sample, the S&P 500, NYFE, Deutschemark, and Swiss Franc were somewhat profitable across all orders Out-of-sample, the S&P 500 and NYFE neither profited nor lost, but the Deutschemark did well with entry at open, and the Swiss Franc with entry on limit and on stop As with the crossover model, there were many more profitable market-order combinations Tests of the Crossover Model with Confirmation This is identical to the basic crossover model except that entries were only taken when an appropriate reading of the Fast %K Stochastic confirmed lunar market behavior.

$ 18,205,989 1.64 $ 11,101,213 $185,185,347 $1,851.85

D-glucarate, 5, 10 12, 44, 94, 103, 117, 118 D vitamin, 80 Daikon, 150 Decorating materials, 30 Dehumidifier, 31 Dental Amalgam Toxicity Removal, 213 Desserts, 205 9 Detox Revolution Program, 133 44 diet, 140 43, 144 exercise, 140, 143

Specifically, if the lunar crossover suggested a buy, it was only acted upon if Fast %K was below 25%; before a buy occurred, the market had to be down or near a bottom, as expected on the basis of the lunar rhythm Likewise, a lunar sell was not taken unless the market was near a possible top, ie, Fast %K greater than 75% Entries were at the open, on a limit, or a stop (Tests 4 to 6, respectively) The length of the moving averages (avglen) was optimized from 3 to IS in increments of 3, and displacement (disp) from 0 to 15 in increments of 1 Best performance was achieved for entry at the open, and on a limit, with a moving average length of 15 and a displacement of 12; the best stop entry occurred with a length of 12 and a displacement of 5.

Improvement in LTV New LTV Previous LTV Difference Times 100,000 customers Years 1 3 $1,380.22 $1,380.22 $0.00 $0.00 Years 4 6 $1,740.84 $1,698.31 $42.53 $4,253,296 Years 7 9 $1,851.85 $1,784.97 $66.88 $6,688,364

In-sample, the results were somewhat better than the basic crossover model: When combined with the stop, the crossover with confirmation yielded about $234 per trade Out-of-sample, however, the average loss was more than for either of the previous two models, regardless of order The stop showed the smallest loss per trade and was best This is another system not profitable on a whole portfolio basis The equity curves showed nothing but losses across all three orders..

should come to approximately $80 million ($73 million plus $7 million) over 9 years. This is the way lifetime value is used to determine the value of relationship-building programs. That is not the end of the lifetime value story for Asian, however.

In-sample, the JapaneseYen, Heating Oil, Soybeans, and Soybean Meal were profitable with all three orders; out-of-sample, only losses or, at best, unprofitable trading occurred in these markets Kansas Wheat showed consistent behavior across samples: Results were profitable with entry at open and on limit, and unprofitable with entry on stop Across samples, the British Pound and Swiss Franc were profitable, as was the Canadian Dollar, Eurodollar, and Pork Bellies with entry on a stop Since the number of trades was fairly small for many markets and the whole portfolio, results are probably not trustworthy Tests of the Crossover Model with Confirmation and Inversions This is the same as the crossover model with confirmation, but additional trades were taken at possible inversions.

The repurchase data developed for Asian produced some unanticipated results concerning Asian used-car owners. Many car companies do not consider the LTV of used-car owners in their marketing programs. The conventional wisdom concerning used-car owners is that they do not represent a value to the manufacturer. After all, the manufacturer made its pro t when the car was originally sold to the dealer. When the car returns to the dealer as a trade-in, the dealer makes the pro t on the resale of the vehicle. When you look at the performance of owners of used Asian cars, however, you nd something very interesting (see Table 4-11). This table shows just one year. As you can see, 6275 of the owners of used Asian cars in 1997 bought new Asian cars by 2002. Similar charts were developed for each year. Putting them together, the nal result was that in the average year, 6400 owners of Asian used cars purchased a brand new Asian. The owners of Asian used cars were, in fact, the greatest single prospect group for the purchase of new vehicles other than new Asian car owners. Lifetime value is forward-looking. It does not deal with the past. We are asking, How much pro t will you make from these people over a Table 4-11 New-Car Purchases by Used-Car Owners