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1. Compute the discount rate in the third year. Interest rate 6 percent. Risk factor 1.4. 2. Use this number to compute the net present value of pro ts in the third year, if the pro ts are $45,447,221.

the stop or profit target-was closed out after 10 days, regardless of its profitability. In this test, an exit strategy that uses an adaptive MEMA stop, with optimal parameters and a shrinking profit target, is examined. The only difference between the test reported in Table 14-6 and the one reported in Table 14-5 is in the extension of the maximum time a trade may be held, from 10 to 30 days. The initial profit target limit is reoptimized by stepping it from 5 to 7 in increments of 0.5. Likewise, the shrinkage rate coefficient is stepped from 0.05 to 0.4 in increments

of 0.05. The code is the same as for the previous test. Only the setting of the maxhold parameter, which controls the maximum time a trade may be held, is changed. The best performance was achieved with an initial target parameter of 5.5 and a shrinkage coefficient of 0.1. The average risk-to-reward ratio went from - 1.32 to ~ 1.22. The percentage of wins remained the same, but the average trade lost only $1,236, rather than $1,325 in the previous test. Extension of the time limit improved results, but not dramatically. Most trades were closed out well before the time limit expired; i.e., the average trade only lasted between 6 and 10 bars (days).

3. Compute the retention rate for years 1 and 2 in the following table, given the number of customers shown.

There are many ways to generate entries based on solar activity The method used below is a simple variation of a breakout model, applied to sunspot counts, not prices The rules are: If the current sunspot number is higher than the cument upper threshold, and the sunspot counts for a certain number (I& ) of previous bars were lower than their corresponding thresholds, then either a buy or sell signal (depending on previous market behavior in response to upside breakouts in the sunspot numbers) is issued If the current sunspot number is lower than the current lower threshold, and the sunspot counts for the same number of previous bars were all higher than their corresponding thresholds, then either a sell or a buy signal (again, depending on previous market behavior) is issued The signals are not responded to immediately, but only after a specified number of days (disp).

Year 1 Customers Retention rate 312,886 Year 2 219,445 Year 3 188,994

The breakout thresholds are determined as follows: The upper threshold, used for a given bar, is the highest sunspot number found in a certain larger number of previous bars (Ibl), while the lower threshold is set at tbe lowest of the sunspot numbers in those previous bars Previous market behavior refers to whether the market was near the bottom or top of its near-future range when a paaicular kind of breakout occurred If a given direction of solar brealout is historically associated with the market being near the bottom of its near-future range, a buy signal is generated, on the other hand, if the market is characteristically near the top of its near-future range, a sell signal is generated Like lunar phenomena and seasonality, entries based on solar activity share the assumption that market behavior is intluenced by external factors and that the independent, influential variable has predictive value, i.

4. If a company has a retention rate in the second year of 60 percent, what will selling an additional product to the customer in that year do to the retention rate in the third year compared to what it would have been a. Make it go up. b. Make it go down. c. Not enough information is given to know one way or the other. d. It depends on the discount rate. e. It depends on the lifetime value. 5. Which is more important in determining potential lifetime value a. The probability of the customer s buying an additional product b. The pro tability of the customer s buying that product c. Current lifetime value d. Both a and b e. None, since potential lifetime value cannot be predicted 6. What is the best way for marketing to justify its annual budget a. Movement in the discount rate b. Movement in the lifetime value in future years c. Movement in the potential lifetime value of prospects d. Reduction in the retention rate e. None of the above 7. What is the next best product for a customer a. The one with the most margin for the seller. b. The one with the highest probability of a sale. c. This cannot be known in advance. d. The one with the highest value to the company, which is determined by multiplying the probability of purchase and the pro tability if purchased. e. The one with the highest lifetime value if purchased.