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still shopping at the chain, the number of visits and spending per visit tend to grow. The chain spends $4.00 per year on direct-mail marketing messages, including seasonal specials. It loses money on women in the rst year, but overall it earns a good pro t from those who remain, so that the lifetime value of a newly acquired customer after 3 years is $111. The chain is doing well. Now we will determine the effect of additional email retention messages on a similar group of women, which we will call the test group. These women get 36 personalized email retention messages per year from the store, in addition to the regular direct mail. These messages cost $0.04 per message. They have the effect of increasing the retention rate by 5 percent, the number of visits per year by 0.2 visit, and the spending rate per visit by $5. Table 5-15 shows the results. As you can see, these retention messages have a dramatic effect on the women s behavior. Note that we could not have had this effect by simply increasing the number of direct-mail messages, which were costing us about $0.50 per message. Had we tried that, 36 messages per year would have cost us $18 per customer, or $3.6 million per year, which would have seriously eaten into pro ts. In addition, many of these email messages were quite timely and could not have been sent at all by direct

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(For information about the various markets and their symbols, see Table 11-l in the Introduction to Part II) Only the IO-Year Notes and Cotton showed strong profits across all three entry orders in-sample Out-of-sample, performance on these markets was miserable The S&P 500, a market that, in our experience, has many clear and tradable cycles, demonstrated strong profitability on the in-sample data when entry was at open or on limit This market was strongly profitable out-of-sample with entry on limit and on stop, but somewhat less profitable with entry at open Interestingly, the NYFE, although evidencing strong in-sample profits with entry at open and on limit, had losses out-of-sample across all three orders There are a few other prof-.

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Year 1 Customers Retention rate Visits per year Amount spent per visit Revenue Cost rate Cost Acquisition cost ($170) Direct mail marketing messages @ $0.50 Marketing costs Email messages @ $0.04 Email total Total cost Pro t Discount rate NPV of pro t Cumulative NPV of pro t Lifetime value 200,000 44% 2.2 $165 $72,600,000 60% $43,560,000 $34,000,000 6 $ 600,000 36 $ 288,000 $78,448,000 $5,848,000 1.00 $5,848,000 $5,848,000 $29.24 Year 2 88,000 54% 3.2 $210 $59,136,000 58% $34,298,880 6 600,000 36 $ 126,720 $35,025,600 $ $24,110,400 1.07 $22,491,045 $16,643,045 $83.22 Year 3 47,520 64% 4.2 $240 $47,900,160 56% $26,824,090 6 600,000 36 $ 68,429 $27,492,518 $ $20,407,642 1.15 $17,758,376 $34,401,421 $172.01

10-2

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You might find it interesting that certain countries in the world eat more meat than we do in the United States but have a lower rate of heart disease and cancer Argentines, for example, eat more than twice the amount of red meat that we do in the United States, but because they tend to eat meat from range-fed cattle, their rates of heart disease and cancer are much lower than ours Range-fed animals provide a rich source of important vitamins such as beta-carotene and vitamin E, and essential fats such as omega-3 fatty acids These important nutrients have been shown in many scientific studies to reduce the risk of cardiovascular disease, cancer, diabetes, and obesity, as well as other degenerative disease Grass-fed meat is low in saturated fat but has two to six times more essential omega-3 fatty acids than its grain-fed equivalent.

Year 1 Control Test Gain from use of email With 200,000 customers $45.00 $29.24 $15.76 $3,152,000 Year 2 $46.23 $83.22 $36.98 $7,396,776 Year 3 $111.01 $172.01 $61.00 $12,199,873

. . -... r.-

mail. The effect of the email can be seen in Table 5-16. The gain to the chain is $12 million in pure pro t in the third year. Now we can evaluate the retention messages as shown in Table 5-17. As you can see, increases in retention and lifetime value are much more dif cult to measure than other direct marketing factors. You have to set up control groups that do not get the retention messages and then see, after a year or so, whether there is a difference in the retention rate and the lifetime value. The only difference between email and direct mail here is that direct mail is probably more effective in building retention than email. A thank-you letter that is printed and mailed means more than a thank-you email. The same might be true of birthday cards and other retention messages. On the face of it, however, it is a lot easier to

03 I. -

get management to spring for $8000 for email birthday cards than for $100,000 for direct-mail ones. The probability is that emails will be much more widely used as people come to see their value. So the email will probably be the clear winner in retention messages.

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itable in-sample market-order combinations, as well as out-of-sample marketorder combinations, However, very little correspondence between the two was observed. Perhaps markets that have not had cycles in the past (in-sample) have cycles in the present (out-of-sample), and vice versa. At least the S&P 500 behaved as expected on the basis of prior research and may be one of the few markets consistently amenable to cycle trading in this crude form. Figure 10-4 depicts the equity for the portfolio with entry at open. Equity declined slowly and then became rather flat until about August 1992, at which time it began a steady and rapid decline.

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