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Let s assume that the cost of all these additional relationship-building activities is about $110 per customer per year, or about $5 million. There could be two results: The retention rate might go up by 5 percent, and the number of orders might go up by one-half order per year. Table 5-8 shows what could happen. Lifetime value in the third year has gone up from $11,907 to $13,362. What does that mean for WardChem in terms of pro ts As Table 5-9 shows, it means more than $65 million more pro ts after taking into account the extra $5 million per year spent on relationshipbuilding activities. Table 5-8 Revised Lifetime Value

1 O - 2

In addition to the data provided in the charts, a number of other tests were conducted using plasmodes. A plasmode is a set of data constructed to have the characteristics that are assumed to exist in the real data. The intention is to test the ability of some algorithm or analytic technique to properly extract, detect, or analyze those characteristics. A good cycle-based trading system should be able to do a good job trading a synthetic data series containing lots of noise and occasional embedded cycles. If it cannot, there could be no expectation of it trading well in any real market. The kind of filters used in the tests below perform very well in tests involving plasmodes. GENERATING BANKS CYCLE ENTRIES USING FILTER

Year 1 Retention rate Retained customers Average order Orders per year Total revenue Cost rate Variable costs Acquisition cost ($1,400) Retention costs ($200/yr) Total costs Gross pro t Discount rate Net present value of pro t Cumulative NPV of pro t Lifetime value 75% 45,000 $2,500 8.5 $956,250,000 75% $717,187,500 $ 63,000,000 $ 9,000,000 $789,187,500 $167,062,500 1.01 $164,767,265 $164,767,265 $3,661 Year 2 80% 33,750 $2,700 9.5 $865,687,500 71% $614,638,125 0 $ 6,750,000 $621,388,125 $244,299,375 1.09 $223,953,322 $388,720,586 $8,638 Year 3 85% 27,000 $2,900 10.5 $822,150,000 69% $567,283,500 0 $ 5,400,000 $572,683,500 $249,466,500 1.17 $212,564,425 $601,285,011 $13,362

One way to generate cycle entries is to set up a series of filters, each for a different frequency or periodicity (eg, going down a certain percentage per filter throughout some range or spectrum that will be analyzed) If one of these filters shows strong resonance, while the others show little or no activity, there is presumably a strong cycle in the market An entry is generated by looking at the pair of filter outputs and buying at the next bar, if the cycle phase is such that a cyclic bottom will occur on that bar, or selling at the next bar, if a cycle top is evident or would be expected on that bar, Since the strongest-responding filter should produce no undesirable lag or phase error, such cyclic entries should provide exceedingly timely signals if the market is evidencing cyclic behavior.

New LTV Old LTV Difference Times 45,000 customers Year 1 $3,661 $3,462 $200 $8,987,305 Year 2 $8,638 $7,926 $712 $32,046,283 Year 3 $13,362 $11,907 $1,454 $65,451,072

in the United States, where we consume large amounts of dairy products. The Mediterranean diet also contains very few processed and simple carbohydrate sugars. Fresh fruit is the typical dessert. Berries, grapes, apricots, figs, prunes, lemons, oranges and orange peels, and melons are the most commonly consumed fruits. Sweets that contain sugar and/or saturated fats are consumed infrequently and in small amounts. Wine is commonly consumed with meals in small amounts. Finally, the Mediterranean diet features herbs and spices including basil, bay leaf, rosemary, thyme, hot red and green peppers, and turmeric, which are known to help in the overall process of detoxification.

Attempting to buy cycle bottoms and sell cycle tops is one of the traditional ways in which cycle information has been used to trade the markets Cycle information derived from filter banks, or by other means, can also enhance other kinds of systems or adapt indicators to current market conditions An example of how information regarding the signal-to-noise ratio and periodicity of the dominant cycle (if there is any) may be used within another system, or to adapt an indicator to current market conditions, can be found in Ruggiero (1997) CHARACTERISTICS OF CYCLE-BASED ENTRIES A cycle-based entry of the kind studied below (which attempts to buy bottoms and sell tops) has several strong characteristics: a high percentage of winning trades, low levels of slippage, and the ability to capture as much of each move as possible This is the kind of trading that is a trader s dream.

Lifetime value charts like these are used in calculating the value of a name. They are very powerful predictors of success in database marketing.

The assumption being made is that there are well-behaved cycles in the market that can be detected and, more importantly extrapolated by this kind of technology It has been said that the markets evidence cyclic activity up to 70% of the time Even if clear cycles that lead to successful trades only occur some smaller percentage of the time, because of the nature of the model, the losses can be kept small on the failed trades by the use of tight stops The main disadvantage of a cycle-based entry is that the market may.