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Tables 9-2 and 9-3 present information for each of the 12 tests on the specific commodities that the model traded profitably and those that lost, for the insample (Table 9-2) and out-of-sample (Table 9-3) runs. The first column, SYM, is the market being studied. The last column (COUNT ) is the number of profitable tests for a given market. The numbers in the first row are Test identifiers. The last row (COUNZJ contains the number of markets profitable for a given model. Tables 9-2 and 9-3 provide information about which markets are and are not profitable when traded by each model: One dash (-) indicates a loss per trade of $2,000 to $4,000; two dashes (- -) represent a loss of $4,000 or more; one plus sign (+) means a profit per trade of $1,000 to $2,000; two pluses (+ +) indicate gains of $2,00O,or more; a blank cell means a loss between $0 and $1,999 or a profit between $0 and $1,000 per trade. Tests of the Basic Crossover Model A moving average (mnl) was computed for the integrated, price-lie lunar series. A second moving average (ma2) was taken of the first moving average. A buy signal was generated when ml crossed above ma2. A sell signal was generated when ma1 crossed below ma2. This is the same moving average crossover model discussed in the chapter on moving averages, except here it is computed on a lunar series, rather than on prices. The entries were effected by either a market at open (Test l), a limit (Test 2), or a stop order (Test 3). Optimization involved stepping the length of the moving averages (avglen) from 5 to 15 in increments of 5, and the displacement (disp) from 0 to 15 in incre-

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$ 14,212,477 1.64 $ 8,666,144 $178,496,982 $1,784.97

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hundreds of banks and nance companies in the auto leasing and loan business. Asian will get the nancing only if it has a good offer and the dealer pushes the sale. Asian has determined that it gets the nancing in only 62 percent of the new car purchases. For that reason, a repurchase rate of 45.2 percent of cars translates into a 28 percent retention rate for leases or loans. To get the dealers to insist on Asian nancing, Asian has to make it worth their while. It does this by paying the dealer a premium of $60 per lease or loan as a commission. That is shown here as the lease acquisition cost. In addition, Asian contacts its customers with a welcome kit and other communications to ensure that customers appreciate the value of Asian nancing and will use Asian again when the time comes. Asian spends $12 per customer every 3 years on communications to improve the customer retention rate. The discount rate for automobile nancing is different from that for automobile sales. With automobile sales, the discount rate is based on a business-to-business sale of cars to dealers, in which the manufacturer sometimes has to wait for the dealer to pay. With automobile nancing, the discount rate is based on business-to-consumer nancing. The

Canned goods, 149 Canola oil, 64 Carbohydrates simple vs. complex, 70 71 Cardiovascular disorders, 104, 113 16 compounds that promote health, 116 Caricaceae, 42 Carnosol, 94 Carotenoids, 48, 108 Carpet and Rug Institute, 30 Carrots, 58 cream of carrot soup, 159 60 Case Western Reserve Cancer Center, 24, 97 Catechins, 96 Center for Science in the Public Interest, 213 Cereal, dry, 149. See also Grains, whole Chemicals, dangerous. See Toxins Chemistry profile, 137 Chenopodiaceae, 42 Chicken, 202 4 saffron chicken and wild rice salad, 175 77 Children nutrition supplements, 90 91 toxins and, 33 Chlorophyll, 48 Chlorophyllin, 94, 102 3 Chocolate, 59 60 chocolate chip pumpkin muffins, 153 oatmeal cookies with cranberries and chocolate chips, 209 Cholesterol, 13, 96, 103 green tea and, 97 HDL vs. LDL, 53 54, 103, 114 healthy levels, 114 lowering formulations, 114 steroid hormones and, 111 Choline, 82 83

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payments by the consumers are immediate (unless some promotion is involved), so the waiting period is less, but the risk factor is slightly higher. The nal result is that each new customer who buys an Asian automobile and nances it with Asian returns about $1785 to Asian over 9 years in the form of pro t from nancing. What will happen to that nancing pro t if Asian does boost the repurchase rate of B Model cars from 45.2 percent to 51.2 percent (adding the growth from sales during the 3-year period to the growth to 50 percent) The results are shown in Table 4-9. The net increase in long-term pro t to Asian is almost $7 million over 9 years (see Table 4-10). And Asian did not have to do anything unusual to get this increase. Adding the pro ts from the sales of new cars to the pro ts from the nancing, the total pro t from the relationship-building program Table 4-9 Improved Lease LTV

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