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Light Crude, Lumber, and Coffee were highly profitable in both samples Again, there was no profitability for the wheats There was enough consistency for this model to be tradable using a stop order and focusing on appropriate markets Tests of the Crossover Model with Confirmatlon and Inversions This model is the same as the crossover model with confirmation However, additional trades were taken where inversions may have occurred; ie, if a seasonal buy was signaled by a crossover, but the market was going up or near a top (as indicated by the Fast %K being greater than 75%), a sell signal was posted The assumption with this model is that the usual seasonal cycle may have inverted or flipped over, where a top is formed instead of a bottom.

Of course you want customers to register if they come to the site Most of them won t, of course, but many will You can follow up with an email thanking them for the site visit and answering any questions that they posed when they registered Why is registration worth money Because you will use the email names that they give you to send marketing messages to in the future Web visits There is value to a Web visit, whether or not the consumers who visit print data or certi cates Your Web page is, after all, an advertisement We can assign a value to this, just as we do to TV, radio, or print ads We are assuming that a Web visit is worth $002 Total value Assigning a total value to a Web site is important.

Likewise, if the crossover signaled a sell, but the Fast %K indicated that the market was down by being less than 25%, a buy was posted These signals were issued in addition to those described in the crossover with confirmation model Entries were executed at the open (Test IO), on a limit (Test 11) or on a stop (Test 12) Optimization for these tests involved stepping the length of the moving averages (avglen) from 5 to 20 in increments of 5 (PI) and the displacement (disp) from 0 to 20 in increments of 1 (PZ) For entry at the open, a movingaverage length of 15 and a displacement of 2 were best Entry on a limit was best with a length of 20 and a displacement of 4 Entry on a stop again required a length of 20 and a displacement of 9.

It permits you to decide how much to spend on the Web site, and it lets you budget for the staff that is maintaining it..

For entry at the open, the equity curve showed a smooth, severe decline from one end of the sampling period to the other There was a steeply declining equity curve for the limit order, although the overall decline was roughly half that of the one for entry at open For entry on stop, the curve declined until May 1987 It then became very choppy but essentially flat until August 1993 From August 1993 until June 1995, the curve steeply accelerated, but turned around and sharply declined throughout the rest of the out-of-sample period Adding the inversion element was destructive to the crossover model The seasonal patterns studied apparently do not evidence frequent inversions, at least not insofar as is detectable by the approach used.

Adding the inversion signals to the model dramatically worsened performance on a per-trade basis across all entry orders, Losses were seen for every combination of sample and order type, except for a very small profit with a stop in the out-of-sample period There were no markets that showed consistently good trading across multiple order types in both samples, although there were isolated instances of strong profits for a particular order type in certain markets The NYFE again traded very profitably with a stop order, as did IO-Year Notes, in both samples Platinum and Silver also traded well in- and out-of-sample with a stop order Soybeans traded very profitably with a stop order in-sample, but only somewhat.

If you do a good job of designing your Web site, it will capture many customer names every month. These names may be used for marketing programs. In this example, the total value is $1.4 million per month. Your site may not be as valuable as this, but you can use this table to estimate the bene t of your site to your company. It is probably worth more to you than you thought.